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scenario a crash 2.0

2.0 The crash will occur, rest assured: the economic and financial cycles are so made that any rapid growth is accompanied by a correction. Only uncertainties: the timing and magnitude of the crisis. Anchored us a little ...

I think (it's actually a belief) that the 2.0 will crash fairly or very different from the first. The collapse of the "new economy" was in fact quite slow: no real black day but rather a process of regular sharp decline in technology stocks spread in late 2000 to mid-2003. Investors still had money to put on the table, even if they had less: So they began to avoid technology stocks which proved less profitable than anticipated. The result was therefore a general slowdown the economy, but a crisis really focused on the IT sector.

In contrast, the next crisis could be much more violent and does not just affect the industry of new technologies. Why? Because some fundamentals of the U.S. economy are frightening: thus, the flexibilities that existed in 2000 to absorb the shock will probably greatly reduced.

These fundamentals, they are:
- jumaux deficit (state budget, trade balance) have been increasing since 2000, now reaching alarming proportions in the eyes of quite a lot.
- because of these deficits, The dollar resumed its decline logically, but could face more serious tensions if Asian banks stopped supporting the U.S. Treasury as they do for many years to promote their exports.
- the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble is real , and soon will have repercussions on the rest of the economy. Indeed, American households large debt by mortgaging their homes, a significant drop in real estate have very direct consequences on their ability to borrow.

The first domino to fall is therefore that of the U.S. housing and by the violence of his fall (not completed), it will cause (or not) the following:
=> decrease in consumption => panic and financial crisis => general economic crisis (where the IT sector as toast all) => export the crisis in global

Here is a scenario which, if it occurs, should s'ammorcer in the next 18 months (the time to push the second domino) ... but especially the likelihood and magnitude are uncertain as we are little compared to the profoundly chaotic (in the mathematical sense) of the economy.