is definitely quite an accomplishment has succeeded Thomas Mulcair won a byelection in Outremont. On the one hand, Outremont is a Liberal stronghold since the 30s (subject to a Conservative victory in 1988). In addition, Mulcair is only the second NDP MP elected in Quebec, the first being at a Philip Edmunston partial 1990. Should we expect a coming wave? I do not think.
It is clear that the NDP victory is attributable primarily to the candidate's personality. It is unlikely that Doe was able to do the same. Mulcair, he is a former Liberal minister. Thus, by presenting himself in Outremont, he had a customer, not gained, but accessible. In addition, Mulcair has demonstrated his character by daring to defy their leader rather than follow the line of his party. In short, the NDP candidate placed a size and experience.
For the rest, I doubt very much that the Democrats make further gains. The reason? The NDP is more centralized and left a "urban". The NDP will not gain outside of Montreal. The duality between Montreal and the rest of Quebec demonstrates the differences of views between these two realities. The rest of Quebec is not as left as the plateau and results in Conservative areas speaks volumes. The results of the ADQ in the last provincial election are there to support this thesis.
On the other hand, the NDP breakthrough, combined with the Conservative victory in Roberval (PQ and Bloc stronghold) and the very good score conservative in St-Hyacinthe Bagot is a sign that the end of the Bloc Québécois approach. BQ has no monopoly on the left Quebec on the Quebec scene at the federal level. More Quebeckers are now realizing that a member of the Quebec part of government can further the Quebec federal politics other than by condemning himself to the opposition, and that of federalism opening, as applied by Stephen Harper can work.
In summary, congratulations Mr. Mulcair and outstanding success in your new position. I'm not left, but I can recognize that the NDP has ideas that deserve to be heard. Besides, I am looking forward to the coming of a day when the NDP has more seats than the Bloc Quebecois in the House of Commons.
